Rosenkrantz and Guildenstern will die tonight

A NASA satellite is crashing to earth, out of control.  Noone knows where it will land, but the chattering classes have been speculating on the risk of humans getting hit by it.

I just heard Prof. David Spiegelhalter on the wireless telling us the risk of getting hit was similar to the chance of 44 consecutive Heads on tossing a fair coin.

The Stoppard fans among us know that 44 times is nothing.  Do we need to resort to an Infinite Improbability Drive?