Lies, damn lies, and misinformation
What do you do if you’re the powers-that-be, you’ve bungled something badly, and you judge that trying to lie your way out of it will only make things worse?
Why of course, you muddy the waters: cast doubt on everything the public know about it. That way you don’t have to tell any porkies, you just let your natural supporters infer it for themselves and argue the case for you. Turn the whole subject into an argument noone can win in the court of public opinion – at least, not until you (or your successor) can say that things are different now.
Hence the abrupt change in England’s covid death count. It serves to highlight the (true) fact that all statistical measures of that have problems – there are obvious issues with both the old and the new measures – and hence cast doubt on covid statistics in general. Including the (also true) fact that the UK in general, and England in particular, has an exceptionally poor track record compared to our peers. The most reliable measure – overall deaths in excess of average, encompassing both the disease itself and ill-considered responses to it – shows our track record as (to date) the worst of anywhere. Turns out even Belgium’s higher headline count was no more than an artifact of different counting methodology.
But now we have doubt, and scope for argument, not just over the genuine shortcomings of our data, but equally over clear and stark facts. And of course, people have a natural suspicion of statistics to reinforce the doubt.
Talking of which, I should clarify my prediction. My end-of-August timescale was for death count, being much more reliable than case count, but which is of course a trailing statistic and subject to the artifacts we’ve seen highlighted by the change in methodology.
And on another troubling story in the news ….
The bizarre (and rather tragic) story of how our powers-that-be have awarded results to young people in A-level and other exams is surely a travesty on every level. The statistical exercise used went to elaborate lengths to be more-or-less fair to schools (though even that is in some doubt), but is unquestionably monstrously unfair to individual students! Those responsible – everywhere that’s done this – should be unceremoniously fired.
It’s been many years since I sat any such exams (and I expect I’d have got the same results either way) but I’d still have been mightily p***ed off to be lumped with such meaningless results! For those who have lost a university (or other) place they believe (rightly or wrongly) they deserve, and will now either lose a year of their young lives or go through life labelled as mediocre, it seems to me about as devastating as a wrongful criminal conviction! My suggested solution: give every candidate an A-level, but ungraded. All the legitimate inputs to an assessed grade – such as GCSE and mock exam results – are there to be assessed by whomsoever it may concern.
 To be honest, I was mightily p***ed off when I learned that top grades were devalued by being awarded for marks so low as to be utterly unthinkable! Then as now, A-levels were hopelessly inadequate to distinguish the sheep from the goats.